Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
08/08/2009 - Arlington Heights, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Gio Ponti, sent off as the 3-2 favorite, overcame a stumble at the start to win Saturday's running of the 27th Arlington Million at Arlington Park. The 1 1/4 mile race is part of the Breeders' Cup "Win and You're In" program allowing Gio Ponti to gain automatic entry into the Breeders' Cup Turf this year at Santa Anita Park.
Setting the pace was speedster Presious Passion. The six-year-old gelding led by as many as 10-lengths on the turf course initially labeled as yielding. Racing in second was Gloria de Campeao followed by Einstein and Mr. Sidney in the eight-horse field.
Presious Passion, ridden by Elvis Trujillo, still had the lead going into the far turn with Mr. Sidney moving into second and Gio Ponti gaining to reach the leaders.
On the final turn Mr. Sidney was first with Gio Ponti and jockey Ramon Dominguez along side. The favorite assumed the lead coming out of the turn and began widening his lead.
Down the stretch Gio Ponti, trained by Christophe Clement, continued his drive as Stotsfold and Just as Well both rallied from off the pace. Gio Ponti posted a 1 1/4-length victory over the hard charging Just as Well with Stotsfold finishing third.
Completing the order of finish was Cima de Triomphe, Einstein, Mr. Sidney, Gloria de Campeao and Presious Passion.
Recapturetheglory, winner of the 2008 Illinois Derby, was scratched Saturday morning because trainer and co-owner Louie Roussel had indicated all week that Recapturetheglory needed to have firm ground to perform at his best.
The time for the 1 1/4 miles was 2:04.19 on an Arlington turf course listed as good.
Gio Ponti is owned by Castleton Lyons and picks up $588,000 with the victory. The four-year-old colt has won four of five starts this year for more than $1.3 million. In his career, he has banked more than $2.1 million with nine wins in 14 starts.
Gio Ponti has won four straight stakes races, including the Frank E. Kilroe and Manhattan Handicaps, and Man o' War Stakes. As a three-year-old in 2008, Gio Ponti won the Hill Prince Stakes and Virginia Derby.
Gio Ponti paid $5.00, $3.40 and $2.60. Just as Well returned $11.80 and $6.80, and Stotsfold paid $9.80 to show.
<< Fire's defense gets another test against Dynamo
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chicago Fire coach Denis Hamlett has needed to
juggle his defense all season, but the team's results don't show it.
Chicago, which lost the SuperLiga final to Mexico's Tigres on Wednesday, has
posted four st
<< Muscle Hill equals record with Hambletonian win
East Rutherford, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Leading three-year-old trotter
Muscle Hill, sent off as the 3-10 favorite, easily defeated nine rivals
Saturday to win harness racing's marquee event, the $1.52 million
Hamblet
<< Suarez scores hat trick to lead Ajax over RKC
Amsterdam, Netherlands (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Luis Suarez scored three times after
the 70th minute, leading Ajax to a 4-1 victory over 10-man RKC Waalwijk in the
Dutch Eredivisie on Saturday.
Ajax and RKC were tied 1-all in the 70th minute when
<< Lind's hit in 10th inning lifts Blue Jays past O's
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Adam Lind's RBI single in the bottom of the
10th inning lifted Toronto past Baltimore, 3-2, in the middle contest of a
three-game set at Rogers Centre.
Danys Baez (4-6) allowed an infield single to Joe
Marseille opens title chase with win at Grenoble >>
Grenoble, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mamadou Niang scored in under two minutes,
Benoit Cheyrou added the clincher late and title favorite Marseille opened the
French Ligue 1 season with a 2-0 win at Grenoble on Saturday.
Didier Deschamps, wh
Liverpool acquires Aquilani from Roma >>
Liverpool, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Liverpool has wrapped up the signing of
Italy midfielder Alberto Aquilani from Roma.
The 25-year-old has signed a five-year contract with the Reds, having moved
for an undisclosed fee which is report
Harrington leads Woods by three at Firestone >>
Akron, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Padraig Harrington carded a three-under 67
Saturday to take a three-stroke lead after three rounds of the WGC-Bridgestone
Invitational.
Harrington, a three-time major champion, completed 54 holes at 10-
Bullsbay surges to victory in Whitney Handicap >>
Saratoga Springs, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bullsbay, the longest shot on the
board, charged to victory Saturday in the $750,000 Whitney Handicap at
Saratoga Race Course. Ridden by Jeremy Rose, Bullsbay covered the 1 1/8 miles
in 1:48
With all the style and sex appeal of Las Vegas, MySportsbook.com is without a doubt the coolest online sportsbook on the Internet.
At MySportsbook.com, players get to enjoy the luxury of a five star sportsbook, a racebook that's second to none, a casino with all the bells and whistles, and a swanky new poker room!
MySportsbook also has a unique games room where players can go head-to-head for cash playing such things as sports trivia and fantasy games, popular arcade games, word and memory games, and more.
Throughout MySportsbook, visitors and members are treated to informative sports news and sports betting stats Sports matchup reports and sports betting trends as well as entertaining columns written by colorful personalities.
The management at MySportsbook has been in the online gaming business since 1997. As a result of this success, management has earned a coveted spot on eGaming Review's "Power 50" list, which recognizes leaders in online gaming.
With MySportsbook.com , management's goal is to provide players with an exciting place to experience the thrill of gaming in a safe and trustworthy environment.
Thus, players at MySportsbook are assured of getting top notch customer service while having a wickedly good time.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting