Blues, Preds clash in likely defensive battle

Hockey Betting Lines

02/04/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The St. Louis Blues have an All-Star goaltender who might not even be his club's starter come playoff time.

The Nashville Predators are likely to start a netminder this evening who is on the longest winning streak in club history.

That could make goals at a premium Saturday night in this big Central Division matchup between the Blues and Predators in Nashville.

St. Louis has posted a 9-1-2 record since a 3-0 loss in Detroit on Dec. 31 and sits fourth overall in the West, four back of the Red Wings for first place in both the division and conference. Nashville, winners in 13 of its past 16, is a point behind St. Louis.

The Blues recorded their NHL-leading 10th shutout of the season last night with a 1-0 win over the Kings, getting the fifth of the season from Jaroslav Halak to snap a two-game slide. The St. Louis netminder made 22 saves for his 21st career whitewash, getting all the support he would need at the 8:38 mark of the second on Jamie Langenbrunner's goal.

"You've got to get 100 points to make the playoffs and we knew that coming in," Langenbrunner said of the always-competitive Western Conference playoff picture. "If you win one you feel good about it and you move on. If you lose one you forget about it and move on. No one is going to win every game, but you've got to make sure you give yourself a chance every night."

Halak is 12-1-3 in his last 16 starts, posting a 1.57 goals-against average and .937 save percentage over that span. Four of his last seven starts have resulted in shutouts.

Still, Halak has made 28 starts to Brian Elliott's 22. The latter also has five shutouts this year and leads the NHL with a 1.69 GAA. The All-Star selection is second in the league with a .938 save percentage and it is unknown who will get the start tonight.

Nashville is likely to turn to Pekka Rinne, who is in the midst of a personal 10-game win streak. Rinne hasn't lost since Jan. 5 and has allowed two goals or less in all but one contest over his current win streak. He is also 13-1-0 with a 1.77 GAA and .941 save percentage since Dec. 28 and became the third goaltender since the start of the 2005-06 season to win more than 10 wins in a month after going 11-1-0 in January.

After giving up four goals in a 5-4 win at Minnesota on Tuesday, head coach Barry Trotz gave his No. 1 goalie a rest on Thursday and started backup Anders Lindback, who allowed three goals on 27 shots in a 4-1 defeat to hosting Philadelphia.

Ryan Suter had the lone Preds goal, his first since Nov. 23, while Craig Smith logged an assist to give him two goals and three helpers over a five-game point streak. Nashville, though, had a five-game win streak halted.

"Yeah, we haven't given him enough support in terms of offense," Trotz said of Lindback bearing the brunt of an offensive drought. "Sometimes that happens. He's had some good teams we've played him against in the [Eastern Conference]."

The Predators have won all three meetings with the Blues so far this season, including consecutive 2-1 shootout victories. Nashville has won nine of the last 13 encounters overall and four of the past six played at home.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.