2010 Western Athletic Conference Tournament Preview

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/09/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Hawaii Warriors may have the most Western Athletic Conference Tournament titles with three, the last coming in 2002, but this year the islanders aren't even invited to the party as the 27th annual event kicks off this week at the Lawlor Events Center in Reno.

Bringing just eight of the nine member teams to the Silver State, the WAC left the league's least successful program at home and this year it was Hawaii. To further signify Hawaii's problems, the school fired head coach Bob Nash on Monday after just three year's at the helm.

On a more positive note, the top-seeded Utah State Aggies showed once again why they are a force to be reckoned with, sporting a wildly successful 14-2 conference mark as they prepare to take on eight-seeded Boise State in the quarterfinals on Thursday afternoon. As well as USU played this season though, putting up a 25-6 record by no means guarantees the team a place in the NCAA Tournament. In fact, the Aggies know all too well what it means to be snubbed by the selection committee because it was just a few years ago that Utah State, ranked in the AP's top-25, lost in the Big West Conference Tournament and failed to make it to the NCAA Tournament. It was the first time that a ranked program failed to get an at-large bid since the tournament went to 64 teams.

Utah State, the defending champ, is riding a lengthy 15-game win streak into this event and has players like Tai Wesley, Jared Quayle and Nate Bendall to thank for that. Wesley leads the program in both scoring (13.7 ppg) and rebounding (6.4 rpg) and is also first with 40 blocked shots and second in assists with 101. Quayle (11.9 ppg) has the sort of inside-outside game that coaches dream about, able to not only clear 6.2 rpg but also shoot 43.2 percent behind the three-point line. He also led USU in assists (132) and steals (37). Bendall accounts for 10.5 ppg and gives the squad another set of hands on the glass with 5.7 rpg, helping the Aggies to have one of the best rebounding groups in the WAC.

As for the Broncos, they essentially slipped into the tourney because Hawaii completely fell apart. BSU, which won this event in 2008 against New Mexico State, did average a solid 74.2 ppg this season, but at the same time the group gave up 72.5 ppg. Ike Okoye led the way with 12.9 ppg and 8.0 rpg, shooting 53.6 percent from the field, while Robert Arnold showed signs of life in recent weeks and finished the regular season with 11.7 ppg and 4.2 rpg. One of the keys for the Broncos will be the play of Paul Noonan, a starter last season who is now coming off the bench to supply nine points per outing.

Set to take on the winner of the Boise State/Utah State matchup will be the survivor of the Fresno State/Louisiana Tech dog fight. The California Bulldogs were an enigmatic bunch to say the least as they lost Paul George (16.6 ppg, 7.1 rpg) to injury and kept winning and then regained his services and hit the skids. Toss in Sylvester Seay with his 14.3 ppg and 6.0 rpg and FSU had one of the top scoring tandems in the league, but still struggled to come up with 66.3 ppg. The team as a whole is just 32.1 percent successful, yet has allowed opponents to make goof on 37.2 percent beyond the arc. Greg Smith has been a solid interior performer for Fresno with his 11.8 ppg and 6.0 rpg, while Steven Shepp (5.6 ppg) sacrifices his own offense in order to direct the squad with his 145 assists.

LaTech, one of three teams in the league that has never won the tournament title, let alone make it to the championship round, had the talent to be one of the teams to beat this season, but the squad lost three of the last four games coming down the stretch and fell to the fourth seed as a result. Even though he missed the last several games because of an injury, it is expected that Kyle Gibson will be back and ready to go for the Bulldogs. If not, LaTech again has the problem of filling the void left by a player who is averaging 19.1 ppg and is one of the better passers with 92 assists. Magnum Rolle (14.5 ppg, 8.8 rpg) and Olu Ashaolu (10.6 ppg, 8.3 rpg) have been beasts in the paint for LaTech, seemingly always around the ball when it comes off the rim. In the case of Rolle, having logged 69 blocked shots means he gets his hands on the ball as much as anyone on the roster.

A perennial favorite in this event and the host team this season, second- seeded Nevada is tasked with taking on the seventh-seeded Idaho Vandals. The Wolf Pack started off the season a but shaky with two wins in six tries, but the squad picked it up in conference play thanks to the efforts of Luke Babbitt who is one of, if not the, top player in the conference this season. A double-double machine, Babbitt finished the regular season averaging 21.7 points and 9.3 rebounds per outing. Not only does he dominate in the paint, Babbitt is also a tough matchup because he has made 43 percent of his three- point tries this season and that has helped the program hit on 36.6 percent beyond the arc. As soon as defenses began to close up on Babbitt, teammates like Armon Johnson (16.0 ppg, 167 assists), Brandon Fields (14.6 ppg, 3.9 rpg) and Joey Shaw (10.4 ppg, 5.0 rpg) began to get better looks at the basket and take advantage of their opportunities. Toss in the under-appreciated Dario Hunt with his seven rebounds per game and his team-high 60 blocked shots and it is easy to see why Nevada should be sticking around until the end as all good hosts should.

The Vandals had their moments this season, but the fact that they lost to Nevada in both regular-season meetings doesn't bode well for the group at this stage. The big news coming out of Moscow is that Kashif Watson (10.7 ppg) has been suspended for disciplinary reasons and that means the squad will be missing one of its three double-digit scorers. As a result, even more pressure will now rest on the shoulders of Mac Hopson (14.4 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 149 assists) as if it wasn't there already. Steffan Johnson (10.2 ppg) might feel compelled to try his hand at even more three-pointers on Thursday, which might not be a bad thing seeing as how he's made good on 41.1 percent of his tries this season and the Vandals are a solid 38 percent as a group. Center Marvin Jefferson will certainly need to stay out of foul trouble in order to improve upon his 9.0 ppg and 6.1 rpg, especially now that Watson has gone and handicapped the squad.

The last pairing for the quarterfinals might just be the most interesting as sixth-seeded San Jose State clashes with third-seeded New Mexico State. The Aggies, who lost on the road at SJSU this season, has one of the most explosive offenses in the league and averages 78.5 ppg. However, this is also a group that is one of the weakest in the nation on defense with a hefty 78.6 ppg allowed. Jahmar Young leads a list of five double-digit scorers with his 20.9 ppg, followed by Jonathan Gibson with 17.8 ppg as the duo combines to deliver 176 assists along the way as well. Hamidu Rahman (14.0 ppg, 8.4 rpg) and Wendell McKines (10.6 ppg, 9.9 rpg) do all of the dirty work on the inside and yet this squad still losses the battle of the boards by an average of almost three per game. For NMSU, the good news in recent weeks has been the return of Troy Gillenwater who missed the first 21 games of the season. A great addition to the front line, Gillenwater has contributed 14.0 ppg and 6.3 rpg during his return and figures to be an important piece of the puzzle moving forward.

The Spartans may have known they were in trouble this season when they lost to Northern Colorado on the road in late December. Granted, the Bears are a solid team out of the Big Sky Conference, but SJSU lost by 24 points in that matchup and was one of the most lopsided setbacks of the season for the Spartans, who are a dismal 2-12 in this tournament over the years. The team's 14-16 record on the season overall was disappointing, especially since Adrian Oliver was one of the top offensive producers in the entire nation with his 22.5 ppg. Oliver does a bit of everything for San Jose State from shooting 41.7 percent from three-point range to clearing 5.3 rpg and also handing out 87 assists. Robert Owens and Chris Oakes chip in with 10.6 and 10.5 ppg, respectively, the latter among the league leaders with his 9.1 rpg. Like New Mexico State, the Spartans have a problem holding down opponents and have given up 75.1 ppg, which means this matchup could see plenty of action at both ends of the floor.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.

Big East Conference odds

Work left to do: Villanova, Syracuse, DePaul, West Virginia, Providence

Notre Dame and Louisville appear to have done enough to make the move, so we'll make them locks. The Cardinals, despite a modest RPI, are trending way up and have clinched at least a tie for third in the Big East, which should be more than enough with their pair of big road wins. Villanova got back to .500 and gets back to more solid footing. Syracuse got a very important road win and crippled a fellow contender in the process. West Virginia's fate could be in its hands Tuesday at Pitt.

Work left to do:

Villanova [18-9 (7-7), RPI: 21, SOS: 5] Pounded Rutgers to get back to .500. If Cats can get their last two (at UConn, vs. Syracuse), that should be enough with strong computer numbers and a host of wins away from The Pavilion. The Cats have beaten Texas and swept the Big 5 (never easy in Philly), but have a couple of losses to bubble teams (Xavier, Drexel), too. I still think they'll be OK, possibly even at 8-8.

Syracuse [20-8 (9-5), RPI: 53, SOS: 62] History says 10 wins will be plenty, but it might be hard for the Orange to get that last one with a final two vs. G'town, which is trying to win the league title, and at Villanova, which will be desperate for a W. The relative lack of nonconference heft and the weak computer numbers are still concerns, but the Orange have won four in a row and got a very, very big win at Providence on Saturday.

DePaul [16-12 (8-7), RPI: 54, SOS: 18] Beat Cincy and should get past South Florida to get to 9-7, but then what? They have beaten Kansas and Cal (right after the DeVon Hardin injury) earlier this season, but also have lost to Bradley and Purdue, among others. They'll likely need a couple of BE tourney wins, too, but we'll see ...

West Virginia [19-7 (8-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 125] The game at Pitt on Tuesday night could decide the Mountaineers' fate (barring a deep tournament run). They can still get to 9-7 in the Big East without it by beating Cincinnati, but the nine wins would be against UConn, Villanova, St. John's, South Florida, DePaul, Rutgers, Seton Hall twice and the Bearcats. Beating bubble foes is fine, but where's the beef? Outside of beating PG-less UCLA in nonconference play (still a top quality win), there's not a lot to fall back on (besides maybe NC State). WVU vs. Syracuse would be an interesting debate, as the teams don't play in the Big East regular season. WVU has the best win, but Cuse has played the much better schedule.

Providence [17-10 (7-7), RPI: 70, SOS: 33] The Friars likely saw their at-large hopes die at home in the four-point loss to Syracuse, barring an unexpected run to the Big East semis or more. The RPI, bad already, won't be helped by playing St. John's and South Florida in the final two league games.

For more March Madness odds go to MySportsbook.com

For more College Basketball betting lines go to BettingExpress.com

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.